Macau GGR could get better as soon as the beginning of 2023.

After nearly three years of broken hopes and disappointments, Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) could finally go up in 2023, and the recovery could start almost as soon as the calendar turns to January.

Macau casinos

Casinos line Macau’s Cotai Strip. Operator GGR may rise next month. (Bloomberg)
UBS analyst Angus Chan wrote to clients that tourists entering the special administrative region (SAR) must follow coronavirus guidelines. The elimination of China’s zero-COVID policies should benefit Macau concessionaires.

Chan said visitors to the Asia-Pacific gambling hub will still have to receive a nucleic acid test, but they will no longer have to stay in quarantine for five days on top of the three-day home isolation rule. January 8 will annul both rules.

Chan also suggested that China’s “effective elimination” of quarantine laws might increase Macau’s GGR by 2023. Despite most people expecting gaming revenue on the peninsula to revive in 2024, his forecasts may come true due to the absence of COVID-19 regulations and pent-up demand.

Things are looking up for Macau in 2023

Galaxy Entertainment, Melco Resorts & Entertainment (NASDAQ: MLCO), MGM China, Sands China, SJM Holdings, and Wynn Macau are the six companies that run casinos in Macau. All of these businesses just got new licenses that are good for 10 years.

Permit renewal is another example of an overhang that has been removed from the Macau recovery theory. This shows that it could become more powerful in 2023, especially if the theory about pent-up demand is true. In the near future, China will have to figure out how to deal with a huge rise in coronavirus cases.

Because the country shuts down for long periods of time and has a zero-COVID policy, herd immunity is pretty much out of the question. Some people think that China could have 5,000 new cases of coronavirus every day and up to a million deaths next year.

The fact that half of the casino personnel in Macau are thought to be infected with COVID-19 demonstrates the virus’s rapid spread since zero-COVID precautions were dropped.

Expectations

China can change COVID-19 policy anytime without lawmakers. Casinos in the SAR will remain open for most of 2023 while operators improve non-gaming amenities and decrease debt.

Since the coronavirus pandemic began, the concessionaires’ debt has increased, therefore they must make these investments to satisfy local regulators. Some analysts predict it will take years for casino operators to repair their balance sheets after COVID-19.

Most people assume concessionaires who deal with the most mass and premium mass players will recover earliest, whereas VIP-dependent operators may take longer because the junket business has perished.