Experts say that the former Texas governor’s estimates about sports betting are exaggerated.
Experts say that the former Texas governor’s estimates about sports betting are exaggerated.
Former Republican governor Rick Perry is very positive about the idea that his state should allow mobile sports betting. But some experts think that he is exaggerating more than he is telling the truth.
Despite betting little, Perry has plenty at stake. Texas professional sports teams and casino corporations pay the former Secretary of Energy to speak for the Sports Betting Alliance. Last year, Texans illegally gambled $8.7 billion on sports, largely through offshore websites and local bookies.
If Texas legalizes mobile sports betting, that figure doesn’t guarantee legal sports betting. Experts dispute that number.
“Given the significant level of uncertainty in our procedure, this estimate should be accepted with low confidence,” Eilers & Krejcik Gaming reported.
Eilers and Krejcik called Perry’s $8.7 billion estimate of illicit sports betting in Texas “extremely speculative,” which makes sense. Foreign and local sportsbooks don’t report to state regulators.
Cara Gustafson, a spokeswoman for the Sports Betting Alliance, told the Dallas Morning News that there is definitely a “extensive” illegal sports betting market in Texas. Perry said that the amount of money spent on this is “substantial,” but he didn’t say how much.
It is hard to say what the economics of sports betting in Texas will be like. That’s because mobile betting isn’t allowed in California and Florida, which are the largest and third-largest states, respectively. The state with which it has the most in common is New York, which is the fourth largest.
Mobile betting in New York has been around for almost a year and has made $13.3 billion in bets and $1.1 billion for the operators as of November. This brought in $561,5 million in taxes for the state.
New York has the highest tax rate on sports betting in the US. This isn’t likely to be copied in Texas, so the $561.5 million probably doesn’t matter there. In the same way, New York’s $13.3 billion handle can’t be moved to Texas because Texas has 40% more people than New York.
In theory, this means that Texas’ handle would be a lot bigger. But it’s not clear yet if sports betting is a normal part of life there, like it is in New York and other nearby states.
Another problem is that it might be pointless to try to figure out how many illegal sports bets are made in the US. Eilers and Krejcik say the number could be around $100 billion, but other experts say that because there isn’t enough reliable data, all estimates in that range are pretty much useless.
Perry, for his part, has made it clear that he wants Texas to allow mobile sports betting, but he doesn’t want gambling to grow in other ways, like adding casino resorts.
Last month, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott easily won re-election. Recently, he gave signs that he’s more open to casinos and sports betting than was thought before.
There are already bills on the books for sports betting and casinos for the 2023 legislative session. But similar efforts in the state have failed in the past.